Publications

Informing the Leader: Bureaucracies and International Crises. Forthcoming, American Political Science Review. [Supporting Information]

The Character and Origins of Military Attitudes on the Use of Force, with Tyler Jost and Kaine Meshkin. Forthcoming, International Studies Quarterly.

Alliance Dynamics in the Shadow of Shifting Power, with Colin Krainin. 2021. International Studies Quarterly, 65(4), 905-918. [Online appendix]

Segregation, Integration, and Death: Evidence from the Korean War, with Connor Huff. 2021. International Organization, 75(3), 858-879. [Online appendix]

At War and at Home: The Consequences of Women Combat Casualties, with Dara Kay Cohen and Connor Huff. 2021. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65(4), 647-671. [Online appendix]

When Prospective Leader Turnover Promotes Peace. 2020. International Studies Quarterly, 64(3), 510-522. [Online appendix]

The Inter-Temporal Tradeoff in Mobilizing Support for War, with Connor Huff. 2018. International Studies Quarterly, 62(2), 396-409. [Online appendix] [Replication files]

Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes, with Muhammet Bas and Omer Orsun. 2018. International Interactions, 44(4), 777-800. [Online appendix]

Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems, with Muhammet Bas. 2017. International Studies Quarterly, 61(4), 850-866. [Online appendix] [Replication files]

Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations, with Muhammet Bas. In the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. September 2017.

Unfair Fights: Power Asymmetry, Nascent Nuclear Capability, and Preventive Conflict. 2017. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 34(4), 431-455. [Online appendix] [Replication files] 

Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset, with Muhammet Bas. 2016. International Studies Quarterly, 60(3), 552-564. [Online appendix] [Replication files]

How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset, with Muhammet Bas. 2016. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(6), 1099-1128. [Online appendix] [Replication files]

Working Papers

Advisers and Aggregation in Foreign Policy Decision-Making, with Tyler Jost, Josh Kertzer, and Eric Min. Under review.

The Information-Secrecy Tradeoff in Covert Actions.

Elite Perceptions and Cyber Coercion, with Heidi Demarest and Tyler Jost.

Are You Certain? Leaders, Overprecision, and War.

Work in Progress

Testing Theories of Bias in National Security Decision-Making, with Michael Joseph.

Mixed Messages in International Politics.