Informing the Leader: Bureaucracies and International Crises. Forthcoming, American Political Science Review. [Supporting Information]
The Character and Origins of Military Attitudes on the Use of Force, with Tyler Jost and Kaine Meshkin. Forthcoming, International Studies Quarterly.
Segregation, Integration, and Death: Evidence from the Korean War, with Connor Huff. 2021. International Organization, 75(3), 858-879. [Online appendix]
At War and at Home: The Consequences of Women Combat Casualties, with Dara Kay Cohen and Connor Huff. 2021. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65(4), 647-671. [Online appendix]
The Inter-Temporal Tradeoff in Mobilizing Support for War, with Connor Huff. 2018. International Studies Quarterly, 62(2), 396-409. [Online appendix] [Replication files]
Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes, with Muhammet Bas and Omer Orsun. 2018. International Interactions, 44(4), 777-800. [Online appendix]
Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems, with Muhammet Bas. 2017. International Studies Quarterly, 61(4), 850-866. [Online appendix] [Replication files]
Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations, with Muhammet Bas. In the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. September 2017.
Unfair Fights: Power Asymmetry, Nascent Nuclear Capability, and Preventive Conflict. 2017. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 34(4), 431-455. [Online appendix] [Replication files]
Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset, with Muhammet Bas. 2016. International Studies Quarterly, 60(3), 552-564. [Online appendix] [Replication files]
How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset, with Muhammet Bas. 2016. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(6), 1099-1128. [Online appendix] [Replication files]
Advisers and Aggregation in Foreign Policy Decision-Making, with Tyler Jost, Josh Kertzer, and Eric Min. Under review.
The Information-Secrecy Tradeoff in Covert Actions.
Elite Perceptions and Cyber Coercion, with Heidi Demarest and Tyler Jost.
Work in Progress
Testing Theories of Bias in National Security Decision-Making, with Michael Joseph.
Mixed Messages in International Politics.